The pace of COVID-19, the ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak, has been astonishing, and it is inevitable that this will become a pandemic, if it hasn’t already.

When a disease is a pandemic, it considered to be an ongoing threat to people around the world.

The virus has already spread widely, has not been contained in many areas, and there have been unlinked chains of transmission in multiple countries.

There are undoubtedly many more cases in many countries; an estimated two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China may have remained undetected.

Fortunately, we have the lessons of pandemic influenza, which can guide our actions.

A framework allows for initial and ongoing assessment of how infectious and severe a virus is, which informs decision-making.

Applying pandemic influenza frameworks to COVID-19 can help estimate impacts and identify appropriate mitigation strategies, including non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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