Heuristic Thinking in the Emergency Department
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This paper explores the use of heuristics among highly-trained physicians diagnosing heart disease in the emergency department, a common task with life-or-death consequences. Using data from a large private-payer claims database, I find compelling evidence of heuristic thinking in this setting: patients arriving in the emergency department just after their 40th birthday are roughly 10% more likely to be tested for and 20% more likely to be diagnosed with ischemic heart disease (IHD) than patients arriving just before this date, despite the fact that the incidence of heart disease increases smoothly with age.