The United States will face a shortage of between 40,800 and 104,900 physicians by 2030, according to a new study commissioned by the AAMC. Released March 14, 2017, the study found that the numbers of new primary care physicians and other medical specialists are not keeping pace with the demands of a growing and aging population.

The report’s findings are consistent with AAMC estimates from 2015 and 2016. This year’s analysis, conducted by the global information company IHS Markit, extended the date of the projections by five years, from 2025 to 2030, to account for the time needed to fully train a physician who would start medical school in 2017.

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