Much of the current discourse on the COVID-19 outbreak focuses on comparisons of the total caseload and total deaths with those caused by seasonal influenza. But these comparisons can be deceiving, especially in the early stages of an exponential curve as a novel virus tears through an immunologically naïve population.

What does an avalanche of severe respiratory viral illness cases mean for our health care system? How much excess capacity currently exists, and how quickly could COVID-19 cases saturate and overwhelm the number of available hospital beds, face masks, and other resources?

Given the limitations in testing kits for the coronavirus, let’s say there are 2,000 current cases in US so far.

We can expect a doubling of cases every six days, according to several epidemiological studies. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term as diagnostic capabilities are ramped up, but this is how fast we can expect actual new cases to rise in the absence of substantial mitigation measures.

That means we are looking at about 1 million U.S. cases by the end of April; 2 million by May 7; 4 million by May 13; and so on.

What does a case load of this size mean for health care system?

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