COVID-19 Mortality Prediction Model

biorxiv.org
COVID-19

While there have been extensive analyses characterizing cellular and humoral responses across the severity spectrum in COVID-19, predictors of outcomes within severe COVID-19 remain to be comprehensively elucidated.

Recently, we identified divergent monocyte states as predictors of outcomes within severe COVID-19, but corresponding humoral profiles of risk have not been delineated.

Furthermore, the nature of antibodies (Abs) directed against viral antigens beyond the spike protein or endemic coronavirus antigens and their associations with disease severity and outcomes remain poorly defined.

We performed deep molecular profiling of Abs directed against a wide range of antigenic specificities in severe COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU.

The profiles consisted of canonical (S, RBD, N) and non-canonical (orf3a, orf8, nsp3, nps13 and M) antigenic specificities.

Notably, multivariate machine learning (ML) models, generated using profiles of Abs directed against canonical or non-canonical antigens, were equally discriminative of recovery and mortality COVID-19 outcomes.

In both ML models, survivors were associated with increased virus-specific IgA and IgG3 antibodies and with higher antigen-specific antibody galactosylation.

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