Harmonizing Heterogeneous Endpoints in COVID-19 Trials Without Loss of Information

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All ongoing clinical trials should include a stacked probability plot in their statistical analysis plan as descriptive analysis.

While primary analysis should be on an early endpoint with appropriate capability to be a surrogate (parameter), our multistate model provides additional detailed descriptive information and links results within and between coronavirus disease 2019 trials.

We develop a multistate model that is based on hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, death, and discharge.

These events are both categories of the ordinal endpoint recommended by the World Health Organization and also within the core outcome set of the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials initiative for coronavirus disease 2019 trials.

To support our choice of states in the multistate model, we also perform a brief review of registered coronavirus disease 2019 clinical trials.

Based on the multistate model, we give recommendation for compact, informative illustration of time-dynamic treatment effects and explorative statistical analysis.

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