Prediction Models for Diagnosis and Prognosis of COVID-19 Infection

bmj.com
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Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that proposed models are poorly reported, at high risk of bias, and their reported performance is probably optimistic.

Immediate sharing of well documented individual participant data from covid-19 studies is needed for collaborative efforts to develop more rigorous prediction models and validate existing ones.

The predictors identified in included studies could be considered as candidate predictors for new models.

Methodological guidance should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions.

Finally, studies should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline.

2,696 titles were screened, and 27 studies describing 31 prediction models were included.

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